The Most Expensive Pokemon Cards from Base Set 1st Edition (Nov. 2020 Update)
Word of Meowth: Pokemon TCG market trends, tips & positive Pokévibes
This post will provide a small glimpse into the Pokemon TCG market by analyzing the recent sales activity of the most expensive cards from the oldest Pokemon TCG generation, 1999 Base Set 1st Edition.
Making sense of the insane recent market activity can be tough with so many set generations, rarity tiers, and other variations that drive a card’s market value. Most often, the highest value version of a card is normally in English + Grade 10 + Old Set (vintage) + Low Population + High Rarity. As many of the cards in Base Set 1st Edition fit this description, analyzing the top cards within this set will give us a snapshot into the recent surge in demand across the market.
A quick Word of Meowth… Price jumps at the top tend to have a gradual cascading effect on the rest of the market.
Those who get priced out of grade 10 cards will move on to 9’s and 8’s. From 1999 Base Set series to 2000 Gym Heroes and more modern sets like 2016 Evolutions, English to Japanese, etc… Prices within these tiers will gradually increase over time as demand trickles down from the top.
Now, here are the most expensive Pokemon Cards from 1st Edition Base Set:
6) Ninetales - Holo 1st Edition (12/102)
We’ll use Ninetales as an opportunity to review some terminology.
Last Sold = The last sold price on Ebay by previous month end (up to October 31st)
Last 3 Sales Avg = Price average across the last 3 most recent sales on Ebay during the last month
Projected Value = Estimated price during month of this post’s release (November 2020). Based on auction sales(outside Ebay), current asking prices, population size and growth, last sales date, character popularity, and other factors.
Price Lift = Percentage growth from Last 3 Sales Avg to Last Sold
Pop. (Population) = The number of cards in circulation in this exact variation (Pokemon, set, rarity, language, etc.) that have been designated an official grade by PSA (a leading card grading service).
Pop. Growth = The number of newly graded cards (in this variation) by PSA within the last 12 months.
5) Alakazam - Holo 1st Edition (1/102)
Two PSA 10s sold in October. The earlier October sale was for around $10K… which PSA 9 prices caught up to fairly quickly. The most recently sold PSA 10 saw a substantial jump in price.
PSA 9 % growth may seem low but that is due to several PSA 9s selling recently at continuously increasing prices.
I’d expect PSA 8 to start to rise significantly over the next few weeks… the last PSA 8 sold at $2K. (Population for PSA 8 fairly low ~ 200)
4) Zapdos - Holo 1st Edition (16/102)
Strong price growth for both 9 and 10 tiers, although the population is a bit higher than some of the other top cards in this set.
PSA 9’s seems to be on the market fairly often which is why we see a more slow but consistent price increase. More noticeable price jumps in PSA 9 occur following the sale of a PSA 10.
3) Venusaur - Holo 1st Edition (15/102)
Major prices lifts in both tiers in October, a theme we see across the whole market, especially in this card and the following two cards (can you guess who?)
PSA 9 % growth is low due to fairly frequent sales at increasing prices.
October was THE months where prices began to skyrocket across the market, the main contributor being Logan Paul’s 1st Edition Base Set Booster Box opening stream. This single event brought tons of new and lapsed fans into the hobby, many with their eyes set on collecting the most coveted sets in all of Pokemon, the original three starter evolutions (which Venusaur is a part of).
2) Blastoise - Holo 1st Edition (2/102)
Blastoise has the lowest PSA 10 population out of the three starter evolution cards, likely why a PSA 10 has not sold on Ebay since April 2020.
The projected price is based on a current PSA 10 listing’s “Buy It Now:” price. I actually feel $80K is reasonable given the fast rise of PSA 9 prices, low PSA 10 population, being part of the 3 starter evolution set and perhaps the largest contributor… the latest sale for the 3rd evolution starter…
1) Charizard - Holo 1st Edition (4/102)
Rapper logic purchased the latest PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard at a record price of $226K at an auction outside of Ebay. $75K was the last sold on Ebay.
Charizard is the most popular Pokemon card within the TCG and often considered as the “Holy Grail” within any set in which they can be found.
Even PSA 9, 8, 5, 3 , Japanese Korean, Dutch, 1st/non-1st, etc.. every variation of this card is seeing a surge in prices… all which trickle down to the rest of the cards, sets, grading tiers and so on.