Pokémon Market Update: 1999 Base Set 1st Edition (Dec. 2020)
Word of Meowth - Your most trusted source for Pokemon TCG market trends, tips & positive Pokévibes ~
Tons of interesting activity in this month’s 1st Edition Base Set Pokemon market deep-dive extravaganza (say that 3 times). We are going to see more fluctuations in the market, but I just want to make something very clear.. these prices are still and will continue to be RIDICULOUS (lol). So just as a reminder, we look to this oldest and most expensive Pokemon TCG set in order to gauge shifts in the overall Pokemon TCG market, similar to how one may look at Amazon or Tesla stock to gain a quick snapshot into their respected sectors.
Todays update will reveal
New record high sales
New faces in our top 6
A few declining but resilient super-starters.. I mean superstars
A quick Word of Meowth… There seems to be a correlation between a card’s low population and a higher growth rate for its value.
There are of course many factors that can influence a card’s value such as condition, age, rarity, character popularity, etc. but scarcity may be one of the most powerful drivers. This may be the biggest factor for the updates we’ll see below…
With so much movement in this set, we’ll start keeping track of a top 15. Rapid-fire format to start and in-depth analysis on the top 6. LET’S GO!
Now, the MOST Expensive Pokemon Cards from 1999 1st Edition Base Set:
*** Most recent eBay sale and PSA populations (via www.Pokemonprice.com, updated on 12/09/20)
Zapdos 1st Edition Holo (16/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $10.1K/$2K(pop. 125/432)
Ninetales 1st Edition Holo (12/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $10.5K/$2.5K (pop. 67/347)
Nidoking 1st Edition Holo (11/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $13.1K/$3K(pop. 91/414)
Clefairy 1st Edition Holo (5/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $13.4K/$2K (pop. 64/366)
Poliwrath 1st Edition Holo (13/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $13.8K/$1.2K (pop. 98/387)
Alakazam 1st Edition Holo (1/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $15.1K/$3.8K (pop. 85/386)
Gyarados 1st Edition Holo (6/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $16.6K/$3.2K (pop.85/353)
Magenton 1st Edition Holo (9/102): PSA 10/9 ~ $17K/$1.3K(pop.65/382)
Raichu 1st Edition Holo (14/102): PSA 10/9 ~$17.1K/$2.9K (pop.87/379)
***Zapdos, Ninetales, and Alakazam… ALL knocked out of last month’s top 6!
6. Hitmonchan 1st Edition Holo (7/102)
Our first new face in the top 6! I was surprised to see Hitmonchan sell for this high as its not a highly talked about card or Pokemon within the fandom, however this is one of the lowest and oldest PSA 10 population cards in the world. I suspect this sale went to a high-end collector who had to “catch 'em all” and sometimes you pay a premium if there is only one available. PSA 9 value is expected to rise overtime but likely at a slower rate as there are many of those in the market.
5. Mewtwo 1st Edition Holo (10/102)
Now you may notice right away, Hitmonchan recently sold for more, what gives? Well, Mewtwo get’s the nod because Gary V said so. I kid, but Gary was very strategic in making this very same monumental PSA 10 purchase (at least monumental at the time). A few key factors pointing to this card’s long-term value 1) Mewtwo is a VERY popular character (first video game “final boss”, first ever Pokemon movie protagonist, more movies, etc.) but not overly mainstream where the price is inflated (sorry Charizard) 2) Very low PSA 10 population, sub-100 pop. is tremendous for value.
To further validate this Mewtwo is the “coolest kid on the block” claim. As you can see in the chart below, Mewtwo is 2nd only to the all-mighty Zard; in some instances, even surpassing it on Google Trends. Mewtwo’s search terms also covered a wider range of verticals such as - cards, movies, video game strategy questions, while the rest of the gang was almost exclusively Pokemon TCG related search terms.
The chart below compares Google Trends for the top Pokemon we’ll see on our list
4. Venusaur 1st Edition Holo (15/102)
Poor Venu saw one of the sharpest PSA 10 declines on the list! Likely due to the recent hype wave leading to an overinflation in price, but also due to several PSA 10’s being on the market at once. You can even see in the chart that 2 sales occurred on the same day. Venusaur is still one of the 3 original start evolutions, so its popularity and long-term appeal are secured.
3. Blastoise 1st Edition Holo (2/102)
Another decline! A case very similar to Venusaur, but I am still very bullish on both Venusaur and Blastoise. The recent sales avg for PSA 10 is still very strong, PSA 8 prices are catching up to PSA 9 so I expect a more steady increase in value as we head into the new year. Then again, I’m a gossiping cat.
2. Chansey 1st Edition Holo (3/102)
My favorite new addition to our lineup and coming in HOT to the #2 spot. This is the LOWEST PSA 10 population card within this set…perhaps among all Pokemon 1st Edition Holo cards. Chansey is an incredibly difficult card to grade due to its large blank holographic surface area, a single scratch would automatically disqualify it from a 10 grade (not to mention needing perfect edges, corners, etc..). I expect this card to hold its top spot for a few months to come, seeing similar hype and price trends with the 2016 Pokemon Evolutions version.
1. Charizard 1st Edition Holo (4/102)
The all-mighty Zard continues to reach new heights!. Just a few months ago you could buy an entire SEALED 1st Edition Base Set Booster Box for the price of a PSA 1st Edition Zard. PSA 9 drops slightly but expected to rise due this new record high sale for the PSA 10. Does a strong wind lifts all sails.. ? We’ll find out on the next episode.
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A quick house-keeping note. I am aiming to get out updates to ALL of my articles this month. Stay tuned and make sure you are subscribed for MUCH more!